Demography and International Relations: Economics, Politics, Sociology, and Conflict



This chapter argues that looking at politics and particularly IR through a demographic prism allows for the analysis of the fundamental structures of society. Kugler links demographic structures and changes to key dynamics in IR in ways unaccounted for in standard International Political Economy and economic models. In particular, he reveals links to national economic growth and instability; the rise and fall of regions; and civil war. Demographic dynamics are also directly connected to unrest that generates democratic movements or conflicts as observable throughout the Middle East and much of sub-Saharan Africa.


Labor Force Infant Mortality Baby Boom Demographic Transition Demographic Study 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


  1. Balter, Michael. 2006. The Baby Deficit. Science 312: 1894–1897.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Barrett, Deborah, and Charles Kurzman. 2004. Globalizing Social Movement Theory: The Case of Eugenics. Theory and Society 33: 487–527.Google Scholar
  3. Bhavnani, Rikhil R., and Bethany Lacina. 2015. The Effects of Weather-Induced Migration on Sons of the Soil Riots in India. World Politics 67(4): 760–794.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Bloom, David E., David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla. 2003. The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.Google Scholar
  5. Carr-Saunders, Alexander Morris. 1936. World Population: Past Growth and Present Trends. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
  6. Choi, Seung-Whan, and Idean Salehyan. 2013. No Good Deed Goes Unpunished: Refugees, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism. Conflict Management and Peace Science 30(1): 53–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Cincotta, Richard P., and John Doces. 2012. The Age-Structural Maturity Thesis: The Impact of the Youth Bulge on Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy. In Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, ed. Jack A. Goldstone et al. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  8. Dancygier, Rafaela M. 2010. Immigration and Conflict in Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Das Gupta, Monica, Jiang Zhenghua, Li Bohua, Xie Zhenming, Woojin Chung, and Bae Hwa-Ok. 2003. Why is Son Preference So Persistent in East and South Asia? A Cross-country Study of China, India and the Republic of Korea. Journal of Development Studies 40(2): 153–187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Ding, Q.J., and T. Hesketh. 2006. Family Size, Fertility Preferences, and Sex Ratio in China in the Era of the One Child Family Policy: Results from National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey. British Medical Journal 333(7564): 371–373.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Dyson, Tim. 2010. Population and Development: The Demographic Transition. New York, NY: Zed Books.Google Scholar
  12. Ehrlich, Paul R., and David Brower. 1968. The Population Bomb. New York: Ballantine Books.Google Scholar
  13. Fisunoglu, Fahrettin Ali. 2014. Beyond the Phoenix Factor: Consequences of Major Wars and Determinants of Postwar Recovery. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Claremont Graduate University.Google Scholar
  14. Galton, Francis. 1883. Inquiries into the Human Faculty. London, UK: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Goldstone, Jack A. 2012. Theory of Political Demography. In Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, ed. Jack A. Goldstone et al. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  16. Goldstone, Jack A., Eric P. Kaufmann, and Monica Duffy Toft. 2012. Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  17. Gratton, Brian. 2012. Demography and Immigration Restriction in American History. In Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, ed. Jack A. Goldstone et al. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  18. Graunt, John. 1665. Natural and Political Observations Mentioned in a Following Index, and Made Upon the Bills of Mortality. … The Fourth Impression. Oxford: Printed by William Hall for John Martyn and James Allestry, printers to the Royal Society. Early English Books Online. Accessed July 7, 2013.Google Scholar
  19. Greenhalgh, Susan. 2008. Just One Child: Science and Policy in Deng’s China. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  20. Greenhill, Kelly M. 2010. Weapons of Mass Migration. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University.Google Scholar
  21. Halfon, Saul E. 2007. The Cairo Consensus: Demographic Surveys, Women’s Empowerment, and Regime Change in Population Policy. New York, NY: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
  22. Hansen, Randall, and Desmond King. 2013. Sterilized by the State: Eugenics, Race, and the Population Scare in the Twentieth-Century North America. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Hatton, Timothy, and Jeffery Williamson. 2002. What Fundamentals Drive World Migration? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 9159.Google Scholar
  24. Hauser, Phillip M., and Otis Dudley Duncan, eds. 1959. The Study of Population: An Inventory and Appraisal. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  25. Hendrix, Cullen S., and Idean Salehyan. 2012. Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research 49(1): 35–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Heuveline, Patrick, and Bunnak Poch. 2007. The Phoenix Population: Demographic Crisis and Rebound in Cambodia. Demography 44(2): 405–426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Hill, Kenneth. 2004. War, Humanitarian Crises, Population Displacement, and Fertility: A Review of the Evidence. Roundtable on the Demography of Forced Migration, Committee on Population, National Research Council and Program on Forced Migration and Health at the Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.Google Scholar
  28. Hudson, Valerie M., and Andrea M. den Boer. 2004. Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  29. Iversen, Torben, and Frances Rosenbluth. 2010. Women, Work, and Politics. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
  30. Jackson, Richard, and Neil Howe. 2012. The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and the Geopolitics in the 21st Century. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies.Google Scholar
  31. Jejeebhoy, Shireen J. 1995. Women’s Education, Autonomy, and Reproductive Behaviour: Experience from Developing Countries. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press (Clarendown Press).Google Scholar
  32. Kahl, Colin H. 1998. Population Growth, Environmental Degradation and State-sponsored Violence: The Case of Kenya, 1991–93. International Security 23(2): 80–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Kaufmann, Eric P. 2010. Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? London: Profile Books Ltd.Google Scholar
  34. Kevles, Daniel J. 1995. In the Name of Eugenics: Genetics and the Uses of Human Heredity. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
  35. Kirk, Dudley. 1996. Demographic Transition Theory. Population Studies 50(3): 361–387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Koubi, Vally. 2005. War and Economic Performance. Journal of Peace Research 42(1): 67–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Kugler, Tadeusz. 2016. The Demography of Genocide. In Economic Aspects of Genocide, Mass Killing, and Their Prevention, ed. Charles H. Anderton, and Jurgan Brauer. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  38. Kugler, Tadeusz, Kyungkook Kang, Kugler Jacek, M. Arbetman, and John Thomas. 2013. The Demographic & Economic Consequences of Conflict. International Studies Quarterly 57(1): 1–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Kugler, Tadeusz, and Jacek Kugler. 2013. Revised Political Demography. In The International Studies Compendium Project, ed. Robert A. Denemark. Oxford, UK: Wiley-Blackwell.Google Scholar
  40. Lam, David. 2011. How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History. Demography 48(4): 1231–1262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Lankester, E. Ray. 1880. Degeneration: A Chapter in Darwinism. London: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Lee, Ronald. 2003. The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(4): 167–190.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Lombardo, Paul. 2008. Three Generations, No Imbeciles: Eugenics, the Supreme Court, and Buck v. Bell. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
  44. Marx, Karl. 1906. Capital: A Critique of Political Economy. 1887. Ed. and Trans. Frederick Engels. Revised by New York: The Modern Library.
  45. Marx, Karl, and Freidrich Engels. 1939. In The German Ideology, Parts I & III, ed. Roy Pascal. New York: International Publishers Scholar
  46. Massey, Douglas S., Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, and J. Edward Taylor. 2000. Worlds in Motion. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
  47. Mayda, Anna Maria. 2007. International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Bilateral Flows. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6289.Google Scholar
  48. Nash, A.E. Keir. 1972. Governance and Population: The Governmental Implications of Population Change. Washington: US Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
  49. Omran, Abdel R. 1981. The Epidemiologic Transition. In International Encyclopedia of Population, ed. J.A. Ross. New York: The Free Press.Google Scholar
  50. Organski, A.F. Kenneth, and Jacek Kugler. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  51. Preston, Samuel H. 1984. Children and the Elderly: Divergent Paths for America’s Dependents. Demography 21(4): 435–457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. ———. 1986. Changing Values and Falling Birth Rates. Population and Development Review, 12, Supplement: Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies: Causes, Consequences, Policies, 176–195.Google Scholar
  53. Rüegger, Seraina, and Heidrun Bohnet. 2015. The Ethnicity of Refugees (ER): A New Dataset for Understanding Flight Patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science: 1–24.Google Scholar
  54. Salehyan, Idean. 2008. From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet. Journal of Peace Research 45(3): 315–326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. ———. 2009. Rebels Without Borders: Transnational Insurgencies in World Politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  56. Salehyan, Idean, and Kristian S. Gleditsch. 2006. Refugees and the Spread of Civil War. International Organization 60(2): 335–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Seybolt, Taylor B., Jay D. Aronson, and Baruch Fischoff. 2013. Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Non-Military Deaths in Conflict. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Solow, Robert M. 1956. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 70: 65–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Spiegelman, Mortimer. 1973. Introduction to Demography. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
  60. Swift, Jonathan. 1726. Gulliver’s Travels. Ed. Ian Higgins. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005.Google Scholar
  61. Tabeau, Ewa, and Jan Zwierzchowski. 2013. A Review of Estimation Methods for Victims of the Bosnian War and the Khmer Rouge Regime. In Counting Civilian Casualties: An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict, ed. Taylor B. Seybolt, Jay D. Aronson, and Baruch Fischhoff, 213–243. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Teitelbaum, Michael S. 2006. Political Demography. In Handbook of Population, ed. Dudley L. Poston, and Michael Micklin. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
  63. Tilly, Charles (ed). 1978. Historical Studies of Changing Fertility. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  64. Toft, Monica Duffy, Daniel Philpott, and Timothy Samuel Shah. 2011. God’s Century: Resurgent Religion and Global Politics. New York: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
  65. United Nations. 1955. Methods of Appraisal of Quality of Basic Data for Population Estimates. Population Studies 23. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. New York: United Nations Publication.Google Scholar
  66. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2011. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. CD-ROM Edition—Extended Dataset in Excel and ASCII formats (United Nations publication, ST/ESA/SER.A/306).Google Scholar
  67. UNHCR. 2007. Convention and Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees. Accessed February 21, 2016.
  68. Urdal, Hendrik. 2006. A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence. International Studies Quarterly 50(3): 607–629.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. ———. 2012. Youth Bulges and Violence. In Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, ed. Jack A. Goldstone et al. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  70. Urdal, Henrik, and Kristian Hoelscher. 2009. Urban Youth Bulges and Social Disorder: An Empirical Study of Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5110. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
  71. Urlanis, Boris. 1971. Wars and Population. Moscow: Progress Publishers.Google Scholar
  72. Wang, Gabe T. 1995. Traditional Thinking on Population in China. China Report 31: 331–348.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. ———. 1999. China’s Population: Problems, Thoughts and Policies. Aldershot, England: Ashgate Publishing Limited.Google Scholar
  74. Weiner, Myron. 1971. Political Demography: An Inquiry into the Consequences of Population Change. In Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications. National Academy of Science, Office of the Foreign Secretary. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
  75. Weiner, Myron, and Michael S. Teitelbaum. 2001. Political Demography, Demographic Engineering. New York: Berghahn Books.Google Scholar
  76. White, Tyrene. 2006. China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949–2005. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  77. Winckler, Onn. 2002. The Demographic Dilemma of the Arab World: The Employment Aspect. Journal of Contemporary History 37(4): 617–636.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Wrigley, Edward A. 2004. Poverty, Progress, and Population. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Wrigley, Edward A., and Roger S. Schofield. 1989. The Population History of England 1541–1871 A Reconstruction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  80. Yoshihara, Susan, and Douglas A. Sylva, eds. 2012. Population Decline and the Remaking of Great Power Politics. Washington, DC: Potomac Books.Google Scholar
  81. Zhu, Wei Xing, Li Lu, and Therese Hesketh. 2009. China’s Excess Males, Sex Selective Abortion and One Child Policy: Analysis of Data from 2005 National Inter-census Survey. British Medical Journal 338: 1136–1141.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Politics and International RelationsRoger Williams UniversityBristol, RIUSA

Personalised recommendations