India and China: Population Futures
Document Type
Article
Publication Title
The Sources of Great Power Competition: Rising Powers, Grand Strategy, and System Dynamics
Publication Date
1-1-2024
Abstract
A country’s demographic profile is the foundation of its economic development and political power. Under auspicious demographic conditions, states will be able to design domestic policies that capitalize on a growing national economy and implement foreign policies that seek to enhance the state’s position in the international system over the long term. Adverse demographic conditions, on the other hand, severely constrain the range of options available to states in domestic and foreign policy. Many rising powers today suffer from adverse demographic trends (e.g., declining labor force populations and shrinking tax bases) resulting in domestic policies designed to redress immediate problems, but which tend to hamper future growth. This chapter explores the relationship between demographics and economic growth, focusing on China and Russia. The evidence suggests that China will likely not outpace the United States and its Western allies because its demographics will make escaping the middle-income trap extremely difficult.
First Page
42
Last Page
52
DOI
10.4324/9781003396420-4
Recommended Citation
Kugler, T., & Fightmaster, K. (2024). India and China: Population Futures. The Sources of Great Power Competition: Rising Powers, Grand Strategy, and System Dynamics, 42-52. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003396420-4
ISBN
[9781040147962, 9781032499963]
