Demographic and Economic Consequences of Conflict
Document Type
Article
Publication Title
International Studies Quarterly
Publication Date
3-1-2013
Abstract
Research on conflict traditionally focuses on its initiation, duration, and severity, but seldom on its consequences. Yet, demographic and economic recovery from the consequences of war lasts far longer and may be more devastating than the waging war. Our concern is with war losses and post-war recovery leading to convergence with pre-war performance. To test this proposition, we choose the most severe international and civil wars after 1920. We find that all belligerents recover or overtake demographic losses incurred in war. Economic assessments differ. The most-developed belligerents recover like a "phoenix" from immense destruction in one generation. For less-developed societies, the outcomes are mixed. The less-developed belligerents recover only a portion of their pre-war performance. The least-developed societies suffer the most and fall into lasting poverty traps. The overlapping generation growth model accounts for such differences in recovery rates based on pre-war performance challenging arguments from Solow's neoclassical growth perspective. Our results imply that foreign aid is incidental to the post-war convergence for the most-developed societies, can prompt recovery for the less-developed societies, and is not effective-unless it is massive and sustained-for the least-developed societies. World War II may provide a poor guide to current post-war challenges in Iraq and in Afghanistan. © 2012 International Studies Association.
Volume
57
Issue
1
First Page
1
Last Page
12
DOI
10.1111/isqu.12002
Recommended Citation
Kugler, T., Kook Kang, K., Kugler, J., Arbetman-Rabinowitz, M., & Thomas, J. (2013). Demographic and Economic Consequences of Conflict. International Studies Quarterly, 57 (1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12002
ISSN
00208833
E-ISSN
14682478