Sovereign credit and geopolitical risks during and after the EMU crisis
Document Type
Article
Publication Title
International Journal of Finance and Economics
Publication Date
7-1-2024
Abstract
This paper focuses on the sovereign crisis of the Euro debt crisis era, and we address the existence of the relationship of CDS and bond markets sovereign credit risk pricing for selected core and periphery EMU countries, during and after the 2009 EMU crisis. We study this relationship in conjunction to geopolitical risk as a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty. We use daily observations for several bond maturities and CDS premium with reference to the core (France and Germany) versus periphery EMU countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland Spain, and Greece) for the period 2009 to 2014. To measure global geopolitical risk, we employ the Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) global geopolitics index (GPR). Using alternative econometric approaches, we find adequate evidence of volatility spillovers between the geopolitical risk index and sovereign risk markets mainly during the crisis period (2009–2012) and weaker during the easing of the eurozone debt crisis period (2012–2014). Moreover, based on Granger causality the estimation of the short- term dynamics reveals a significant linkage during the post-crisis period rather than during crisis. During the crisis period, we found significant dynamic responses between GPR and bond yields.
Volume
29
Issue
3
First Page
3692
Last Page
3712
DOI
10.1002/ijfe.2852
Recommended Citation
Bratis, T., Kouretas, G., Laopodis, N., & Vlamis, P. (2024). Sovereign credit and geopolitical risks during and after the EMU crisis. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 29 (3), 3692-3712. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2852
ISSN
10769307
E-ISSN
10991158