Climate Change Alters Thermal Dynamics of Rhode Island Lakes

Education Level

Undergraduate

Faculty Advisor(s)

Professor Joel Singley

Academic Department(s)

Biology, Marine Biology, and Environmental Science

Comments

This research was presented at the 2024 Rhode Island Summer Undergraduate Research Symposium, held on Friday, July 26, at the University of Rhode Island and supported by RI NSF EPSCoR.

Symposium Date

2024

Abstract

Lakes are vital freshwater resources that, as reservoirs of water and energy, are sensitive to changes in climate across timescales. Past research has demonstrated that climate change has already impacted lake temperatures and mixing, especially in relatively large and deep lakes around the world. Comparatively, Rhode Island lakes and ponds are relatively shallow with small surface areas. The combination of these features may result in unique sensitivity to climate not captured by prior studies. To further investigate this, we used the General Lake Model (GLM), a one dimensional energy and water balance model, to simulate thermal dynamics of two representative lakes. Specifically, we parameterized our models to represent the bathymetry of Deep Pond and Watchaug Pond, which are both located in southwest RI, have similar maximum depths (~11 m), and markedly different surface areas (8 and 233 hectares, respectively). We then forced the models with historical hourly meteorological data from Warwick, RI to generate daily temperature profiles of both lakes. Our preliminary analysis of these simulations reveal that from 1970–2023, mean surface temperature, number of days stratified per year, and resistance to mixing of surface and bottom waters have all likely increased for both lakes. Notably, we found evidence that the larger lake may have experienced a more substantial change in annual mixing patterns, especially in terms of the occurrence, strength, and persistence of summer stratification. Overall, our preliminary work suggests that climate change may have already altered the thermal dynamics of lakes and ponds in RI and, importantly, that the extent of changes in mixing regimes may differ depending on size-depth characteristics. This study serves as a foundation from which we will further validate model performance and assess the seasonally-specific changes in thermal dynamics and ecosystem consequences among many RI lakes.

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